The confidence indicator rose in July, amid the confirmation of Romania's investment-grade rating by rating agencies, but the economy will continue to stagnate, pointing to a high risk of recession, according to Adrian Codirlasu, President of CFA Romania.
'The confidence indicator rose in July, amid the confirmation of Romania's investment-grade rating by rating agencies. In line with the improvement in confidence in the economy, inflation expectations also improved significantly. Exchange rate and interest rate expectations moved in the same direction. However, the economy will continue to stagnate, with the risk of recession remaining,' Adrian Codirlasu is quoted as saying in a press release sent to AGERPRES on Wednesday.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator rose 6.7 points in July to 44.2 points. The Current Conditions Indicator increased 8.1 points to 36.9 points, while the Expectations Indicator advanced 6.1 points to 47.9 points.
Expected inflation over the 12-month horizon (August 2027) fell from the level recorded in the previous survey to 6.32%, while 90% of participants expect the inflation rate to decrease over the next 12 months compared with its current level.
Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, 84% of participants expect the leu to depreciate over the next 12 months, while 16% expect it to remain unchanged. The average expected exchange rate for the six-month horizon is 5.2901 lei per euro, while for the 12-month horizon the average expected EUR/RON exchange rate is 5.3445 lei per euro.
Meanwhile, the CFA Romania survey forecasts that the economy will stagnate this year and that the budget deficit will stand at 6.2% of GDP.
'The forecast general government budget deficit for 2026 fell 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous survey, reaching an average expectation of 6.2% of GDP. Economic growth expectations for 2026 remained around 0%, indicating a high risk of recession. Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 63% over the next 12 months,' CFA Romania said.
Regarding residential property prices in cities, 69% of participants expect them to remain unchanged over the next 12 months, while 21% expect a decline. In addition, 74% of participants consider current prices to be overvalued, while 11% believe they are fairly valued.
Against the backdrop of the war in Iran, a question was also added regarding expectations for the price of Brent crude over the next 12 months. According to the responses, participants expect an average price of 87 dollars per barrel.
'However, uncertainty remains extremely high,' the CFA survey reveals.
CFA Romania is the organisation of investment professionals in Romania who hold the Chartered Financial Analyst designation, a qualification administered by the CFA Institute (USA). The association currently has more than 265 members holding the CFA designation. AGERPRES (RO - writing by: Mariana Nica; EN - writing by: Adina Panaitescu)
CFA Romania's Codirlasu: Confidence indicator rose in July, with the risk of recession remaining
Conţinutul website-ului www.agerpres.ro este destinat exclusiv informării publice. Toate informaţiile publicate pe acest site de către AGERPRES sunt protejate de dispoziţiile legale incidente. Sunt interzise copierea, reproducerea, recompilarea, modificarea, precum şi orice modalitate de exploatare a conţinutului acestui website. Informaţiile transmise pe www.agerpres.ro pot fi preluate, în conformitate cu legislaţia aplicabilă, în limita a 500 de semne. Detalii în secţiunea Condiţii de utilizare. Dacă sunteţi interesaţi de preluarea ştirilor AGERPRES, vă rugăm să contactaţi Direcţia Marketing - marketing@agerpres.ro.
Alte știri din categorie
President Dan says Foreign Ministry investigating Orlivka school case
President Nicusor Dan said on Friday that Romania's Foreign Ministry has opened an investigation into the case of the school in Orlivka, Odesa region, where a Year 1 class taught in Romanian was closed. Speaking at a news conference held after the Carpathian Integration Initiative 'Carpathian 8' Summit, he said that 'remarkable progress has bee
Bolojan: We will try, within our possibilities and depending on our electoral weight, to form a Government
President of the National Liberal Party (PNL) Ilie Bolojan said on Friday that, although Siegfried Muresan's nomination for prime minister came three months late, the party would deal with the situation 'responsibly' and seek to form a Government based on its electoral weight. 'Yesterday, about 30 minutes beforehand, I learned from the piece of
Siegfried Muresan: We will start work on a government programme; beginning of next week - discussion with MPs
Prime Minister-designate Siegfried Muresan announced on Friday that he was starting work on the government programme together with the National Liberal Party (PNL), Save Romania Union (USR) and the Hungarian Democratic Union of Romania (UDMR), mentioning that he would present the priorities at the beginning of next week and, based on these, would hold an "extremely tran
CCIR's Daraban: The diaspora is not a sentimental issue but a chapter in the national economy
The experience gained by Romanians in the diaspora in competitive markets must be transformed into investment, jobs and exports, believes Mihai Daraban, President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Romania (CCIR). According to a press release from the organisation sent to AGERPRES, the institution is strengthening its partnership with ROUNIT - Reunited
European Commission approves ANSVSA's Action Plan to unblock sheep and goat exports
The Action Plan of the National Veterinary Sanitary and Food Safety Authority (ANSVSA) for unblocking exports of sheep and goats has been approved by the European Commission, allowing exports of carcasses and products to resume under the differentiated vaccination scheme. According to an ANSVSA release sent to AGERPRES on Friday, the approved solution protects
Health Insurance House launches project on cross-border exchange of medical images, laboratory results, discharge reports
The National Health Insurance House (CNAS) announced on Friday the launch of the European project 'Romanian Medical Images, Laboratory Results and Discharge Reports' (RO-MI-LR-DR), for the cross-border exchange of medical images, laboratory results and discharge reports. The project is funded through the EU4Health programme, with the European Health an
'Socola' Institute of Psychiatry in Iasi to hold new memory testing campaign at weekend
The 'Socola' Institute of Psychiatry in Iasi has announced that it will hold the third edition of its 'Memory Testing Campaign' on Saturday and Sunday, a campaign addressing people of all ages and aimed to identify individual risk factors that may predispose people to memory disorders, while also providing participants with specialist counselling.
'Brancusi and His Muses' exhibition opens at Art Safari
'Brancusi and His Muses', the largest exhibition dedicated to the great sculptor to be held in Romania during Brancusi Year, opened on Thursday evening at the Art Safari New Museum. Curator Doina Lemny said she wanted the initiative to be different, allowing the public to enter the artist's studio atmosphere. 'It is true that Brancusi's wor