The confidence indicator fell in August amid worsening expectations for the performance of the Romanian economy, according to President of the CFA Romania Association Adrian Codirlasu.
'The confidence indicator fell in August amid worsening expectations for the performance of the Romanian economy. In line with the deterioration in confidence in the economy, expectations for the exchange rate and interest rates also worsened. Participants also expect the stagflationary situation to continue, with high inflation combined with economic stagnation,' Adrian Codirlasu is quoted in a press release sent to AGERPRES on Thursday.
Thus, the CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator fell by 4.8 points in August to 39.5 points. The current conditions indicator remained unchanged, while the expectations indicator fell by 7.2 points to 40.8 points.
The expected inflation rate over the 12-month horizon (September 2027) fell slightly compared with the figure recorded in the previous survey, reaching 6.09%, while 84% of participants expect the inflation rate to fall over the next 12 months compared with its current level.
As regards the EUR/RON exchange rate, 90% of participants expect the leu to depreciate over the next 12 months. The average expectation for the six-month horizon is therefore 5.3122 lei per euro, while for the 12-month horizon, the average expected EUR/RON exchange rate is 5.3628 lei per euro.
The CFA survey forecasts Romanian economic growth of just 0.1% this year and a budget deficit of 5.8% of GDP.
'The state budget deficit forecast for 2026 fell by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous survey, with the average expectation standing at 5.8% of GDP. Expectations for economic growth in 2026 remained around 0% (0.1%), with some respondents also expressing expectations of a recession. Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 63% over the next 12 months,' CFA Romania said.
Regarding residential property price developments in cities, 47% of participants expect prices to remain stagnant over the next 12 months, while the remainder is evenly divided, with 26% expecting a decrease and 26% an increase. In addition, 63% of participants consider current prices to be overvalued, while 32% consider them fairly valued.
Against the backdrop of the war in Iran, a question was also included on expectations for the price of Brent crude oil over the next 12 months. According to the responses, participants expect an average price of 87 dollars per barrel.
'However, uncertainty remains high,' the CFA survey also reveals.
The survey has been conducted monthly by the CFA Romania Association for more than 15 years and serves as an indicator through which the organisation seeks to quantify financial analysts' expectations regarding economic activity in Romania over a one-year horizon. The survey is conducted during the final week of each month and participants are members of the CFA Romania Association and candidates sitting Levels II and III of the CFA examination.
The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator ranges from 0 (no confidence) to 100 (full confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions concerning current conditions, relating to the business environment and labour market, as well as expectations over a one-year horizon for the business environment, labour market, developments in personal income at economy-wide level and developments in personal wealth at economy-wide level.
In addition to the questions required to calculate the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator, the survey also assesses expectations over a one-year horizon for the inflation rate, interest rates, the EUR/RON exchange rate, the BET stock market index and global macroeconomic conditions.
The CFA Romania Association is the organisation representing investment professionals in Romania who hold the Chartered Financial Analyst designation, a qualification administered by the CFA Institute (USA). The Association currently has more than 265 members holding the CFA designation. AGERPRES (RO - writing by: Mariana Nica; EN - writing by: Adina Panaitescu)
CFA Romania: Confidence indicator falls in August amid worsening expectations for economy performance
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